In retrospect, the coup attempt by what could generously be called a rag-tag group of white supremacists was destined to fail on Wednesday. As with many things, it seemed like it had a chance of succeeding at the time; but order was going to be restored, and Republicans would feign outrage at this, and soon things would return to a semblance of normal. The revolution, while televised, wasn’t exactly well thought out.
Allies have turned on Trump, who is now “conceding” defeat. Politicians from both sides have condemned his attempt at an insurrection. This is a dark day in U.S. history now — I mean, look at the violence, the deaths, the whole ugliness of the affair. We all saw just how ugly this can get.
There will be investigations. There will be reforms. There will be pledges to do better. We’ll learn a lot, we might even see some substantive changes ahead that will no doubt be good.
Somewhere, someone is watching all this … and taking notes. The next guy wants to make sure he succeeds where Trump fails. He wants to make sure that the revolution will be televised, and pleasing to viewers.
He — and if history has taught us anything, it’s almost certainly going be a he — won’t make the same mistakes. Sure, he’ll appeal to the same base, use a lot of the same ideas in campaigning, and be an awful person. But he probably won’t be so brash, so outwardly narcissistic, so transparent. He knows he’s going to need a lot more people on his side than Trump ever could muster. And for that, he’s going to have to be likeable. At least, a lot more likeable than Trump was.
And it’s less likely that he’ll come in with a violent coup. This guy is going to know how to work with people to get his way. Unlike someone who claims to know the art of the deal (then loses with every “deal” he strikes), this one will know how to actually make deals. And he’ll surround himself with people who, while completely loyal to him, won’t be quite as farcical as some current cronies.
And he probably won’t start out quite so radically. He’ll know he has to ease into the truly awful stuff, and make it more and more palatable. He might even take advantage of an actual disaster — like, say, a pandemic — to enact his agenda. (As it turns out, ignoring a pandemic isn’t terribly popular with a lot of people.) Or worse, he might invent or create a disaster. And people will rally behind him after a disaster.
You might not even notice some of the other things he’s doing: The gerrymandering, the slow encroaching on the judiciary, the other overstepping. Then one day, you’re no longer living in a democracy. And this guy will have the power of an authoritarian, and you didn’t even see it coming.
To be sure, a lot of people will see it coming. But this guy will be much more likeable than Trump. Will probably be more subtle than Trump. Will probably be more intelligent than Trump.
And he’s been taking notes. He saw what worked and what didn’t this time. He is determined not to make the same mistakes.
He’ll be much harder to spot at first.
Now, in the U.S., the next little while will feature a White House not so bent on chaos. Biden/Harris will likely be far more boring than their predecessors. And I’m just fine with boring after four years of terror. I’m hoping for some positive changes. The country has no shortage of grievances it needs to address, and I hope they get addressed.
And ideally, The Next Guy won’t gain much traction because things will have changed.
But we need to be ready. We need to punish those who took part in this plot, even if they are current members of the House). There also needs to be a lot of reform in the American everything. And that includes looking at all our institutions to find where the authoritarians are.
We need to be prepared. Because history has taught us The Next Guy is coming. And he’s going to be a lot harder to beat.
Canuckistan Takes Paris! 